Global COVID Recovery July 2021
It’s July 2021: Where do we stand in the fight again the Coronavirus?? Are we well into Global COVID Recovery??
From all of us at BAI Capital, we sincerely hope that you and your loved ones have stayed healthy and with strong spirits over the last 12 plus months.
In today’s article we will discuss global COVID and economic recovery from the ongoing Coronavirus vaccine roll-outs, as well as threats from emerging new COVID variants.
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COVID Vaccine Roll-outs
Compiled from live date trackers and dedicated sites here is the latest:
USA | As of July 8, 2021, 183.2 million people have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 158.3 million are fully vaccinated.
Europe | Total doses distributed and administered as of July 4th, 2021
- Total number of vaccine doses distributed by manufacturers to EU/EEA countries: 457 820 891 (29 countries reporting)
- Median number of vaccine doses distributed by manufacturers to EU/EEA countries per hundred inhabitants: 123 (range: 82–211.2) (29 countries reporting)
- Total number of vaccine doses administered: 382 771 608 (30 countries reporting)
Rest of world | So far, at least 199 countries have begun vaccinating people for the coronavirus and have administered at least 3,455,829,000 doses of the vaccine.
Gibraltar leads the world and has administered enough vaccine doses for 116% of its population, assuming every person needs two doses.
Economic Recovery in 2021
As we discussed in previous articles, including this one from April, the US GDP is expected to be bullish throughout 2021.
According to the economists at the International Trade Administration, economic recovery so far is based on three main factors:
- First and foremost is uneven access to vaccines—each economy’s growth hinges on vaccine availability and efficacy.
- Second, domestic policies, which vary across countries, significantly impact the pace of economic recovery.
- Third, the pace of recovery will also depend on country-specific structural factors, particularly reliance on high-contact sectors, such as tourism.
Furthermore, advanced economies and developing countries vary in their capacities to execute short- and long-term recovery strategies. This has a direct impact on their abilities to recover. (Therefore) advanced economies are projected to recover faster than emerging market and developing economies.
Advanced economies had the fiscal space at the beginning of the crisis to implement effective stimulus measures, and many now can quickly roll out vaccines. This bloc tends to have larger work-from-home flexibility in conducting business as they generally have higher technology intensity in the production process and digital infrastructure.
Conversely, developing countries historically do not have as much room in their budgets to stimulate their economies, and have not been able to vaccinate their populations as quickly as advanced economies. Lacking access to vaccines effectively places a ceiling on growth, and some estimates project that developing economies will not have widespread access to vaccines for several years. Businesses in developing economies tend to depend more on face-to-face interactions and have fewer work-from-home jobs. In the meantime, developing economies will likely suffer from economic scarring, or long-term effects.
From a global perspective, this crisis will continue to have echo-effects long after the virus is contained. With each passing day we have some more insight into how the virus has affected the global economy. While it is too early to understand the full picture, for now we can see simply that growth has a double ceiling: virus containment and vaccine access. Until the virus is controlled, we will continue on a bumpy, uneven road to recovery.
New Variants and Poor Access to Vaccines Threatening Global COVID Recovery Recovery
Let’s look at these threats and obstacles. On July 10th, 2021, at the G20 Summit in Venice, top finance ministers had this to say regarding COVID recovery:
The global economic recovery is at risk from the rise of new coronavirus variants and poor access to vaccines in developing countries.
From the 2021 G20 Final Communique:
“The recovery is characterized by great divergences across and within countries and remains exposed to downside risks, in particular the spread of new variants of the COVID-19 virus and different paces of vaccination”.
For example, in the US alone, the new Delta Variant is wreaking havoc:
The highly transmissible B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant continues to spread across the United States at a rapid pace. Early data suggest that B.1.617.2 now makes up more than 50% of COVID-19 cases. In some parts of the country, this percentage is even higher, especially in areas with low vaccination rates. This rapid rise is concerning and threatens the progress the United States has made toward ending the pandemic.
So, while the road looks clearer in general, it remains rocky in places… While it is too early to understand the full picture, for now we can see simply that growth has a double ceiling: virus containment and vaccine access.
Today’s Takeways
We can hope for -and also expect- the long sought global COVID recovery, and return to normalcy that we all deserve. Our lives and livelihoods depend on a stable society and economy; we are in need of the circumstances and surroundings that will lead us to our best outcomes.
On that note, the investment advisors at BAI Capital are available to assist with any of your property, real estate equity and immigration investment questions that you may have.
Stay tuned for next week’s email with our analysis of Stock Market Summer Trends as well as other key economic indicators to help you make your best move.
