On Friday the President displayed severe symptoms so was submitted to the Military Hospital later in the day. Since, he has been treated aggressively with among other courses, dexamethasone, a steroid used for patients with breathing problems.
“We’re maximizing all aspects of his care, attacking this virus, you know, multipronged approach,” Doctor to the President Dr. Conley said in a briefing at Walter Reed, where the president has been hospitalized since Friday. “I didn’t want to hold anything back. If there was any possibility that it would add value to his care and expedite his return, I wanted to take it, and the team agreed, and that’s how we proceeded.”
The First Lady Melania also tested positive, but only displayed mild symptoms.
“In Business Insider’s conversations with 20 doctors over the past four days, a common assessment emerged: Either Trump is being overtreated for a mild case, which comes with its own risks, or he’s more ill than his team has let on.”
President Trumps’ current health or lack of it will affect the market to some extent, but placing his setback within the larger context will help us better predict market trends.
THE ELECTION FORECAST
Short term -political
Reaction to Trump-COVID from his supporters:
Most die hard Trump supporters will stay loyal to their leader no matter what happens, so him testing positive for COVID won’t likely change a thing. It’s the fence sitters and moderate supporters who may be swayed to place their vote elsewhere after this health scare. After all, the messaging throughout the outbreak was about how minimal the severity and impact was. That message won’t be so easy to send anymore.
Should numerous officials and aides be incapacitated in the next week, we could see a constitutional and political crisis heading into election time.
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany’s deputies, Chad Gilmartin and Karoline Leavitt
Top Advisors Hope Hicks and Kellyanne Conway
Advisor Chris Christie
Campaign Manager Bill Stepien
Republican party chair Ronna McDaniel
Senate Members: Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin (did not attend the nomination ceremony), Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Mike Lee of Utah
*List current as of 3pm EDT October 5th, 2020*
Long term political effects
The war against COVID.
Much of President Trump’s messaging downplays COVID, assuring the populace that it is under control. As noted above, many of his most fervent supporters believe the Coronavirus is a hoax and ploy to take away their freedoms. So, should the virus affect the GOP more significantly in the next few weeks and months, it could create a double whammy for party power and support.
First off, an infected security detail, campaign team, White House staff, civilian advisors, frequently contacted politicians, as well as donors, will work to diminish the effectiveness of the election campaign, the post election administration/ transition -depending on the election results, as well as general running of the country.
Secondly, the more Republican party members are affected, the more it will undermine the legitimacy of the “fakeness” of the virus. Interestingly enough, many in the GOP practice no precautionary social distancing or prevention measures.
“I heard we have one of the lowest, maybe the lowest, mortality rate anywhere in the world”.
The constitutional and political ramifications of major elements of government being incapacitated by COVID.
Continuing from above, the fallout from a diminished ruling party will adversely affect the political sphere to spread into the economy and society in general. If member after member of the ruling party and administration is quarantined, the quality of leadership will suffer and will lead to many extra hours spent replacing and/ or co-ordinating remotely with these officials, aides, team members, etc. The market will most likely reflect this uncertainty, especially should key figures die or be permanently removed from duty.
Possible future impeachment cases against President Trump for tax fraud.
While not COVID related, this unfolding event definitely affects the perception of the President. The legal repercussions could be drawn out for months, even resulting in a possible impeachment.
Effect on Stocks
The stock market is reflecting all of this uncertainty by showing slightly lower numbers on Friday and higher numbers on Monday’s close following news Trump would leave hospital by end day.
With big tech stocks soaring and overvalued, the election situation being uncertain, as well as Trump’s possible court case for tax fraud, we are presented with an unstable market outlook, making it harder for some investors to want to hold on to their high performing inflated shares.
WHAT TO BE READY FOR
A volatile stock market for months to come
No matter who wins the upcoming US election, the market could remain in flux for months to come. Here’s why: