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US Inflation

BAI Capital Weekly News Summary | Investment, Immigration, U.S. Economy and Real Estate | Week of August 18–24, 2025

This week brought significant developments: the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2025, the job market weakened, office real estate showed signs of recovery, and U.S. immigration policy tightened further.

1. OECD Warns of Slower U.S. Growth Ahead

The OECD projected that U.S. GDP growth will slow in 2026, weighed down by higher tariffs and declining immigration.

While the 2025 forecast was revised upward to 1.8 %, the organization warned that long-term risks could curb momentum.

2. Fed Cuts Interest Rate for First Time in 2025

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.00–4.25 %.

The move signals a pivot toward looser policy amid weakening growth and easing inflationary pressures.

3. U.S. Job Market Slows: Only 22,000 Jobs Added in August

Job creation stagnated with just 22,000 new positions in August, far below forecasts.

Unemployment rose to 4.3 %, revealing weakness in construction, manufacturing and professional services.

4. $1.6B Real Estate Deal Hints at Office Market Recovery

Rithm Capital acquired Paramount Group Inc. for $1.6B, securing properties in New York and San Francisco.

The deal indicates some investors believe the office downturn may be bottoming out.

5. Foreign Buyers Return as Local Demand Fades

Sales of U.S. homes to foreign buyers reached $56B over the past year, up 33 % from the prior period.bThe surge highlights the role of foreign capital as domestic buyers remain cautious.

6. USCIS Updates Policy on Fees and Fraud Guidance

On August 20–21, USCIS released updates on fees, exemptions, and false citizenship claims. The new rules redefine eligibility and documentation requirements for applicants.

7. Decline in Foreign-Born Workforce, Tourism, and Students

The Bush Institute reported falling numbers of foreign-born workers, tourists, and international students.

These declines could reduce economic activity in industries dependent on migrant labor and global mobility.

8. Stricter Vetting for Family-Based Visas

Effective August 1, USCIS tightened interview and vetting rules for family reunification petitions.nThe measure aims to reduce fraud but may slow processing for many applicants.

9. Aggressive Immigration Policies Could Fuel Inflation

Moody’s warned that mass deportations and restrictive immigration measures may push inflation to 4 %. Labor shortages could raise costs in agriculture, food processing and other key sectors.

10. New ICE Detention Center in Nebraska Expands Enforcement

On August 19, DHS announced a new ICE detention facility in Nebraska, part of broader enforcement efforts.

The expansion aligns with the government’s push to strengthen immigration controls nationwide.

 

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